Outlook for the development of the Middle East in 2022
As an important geopolitical and economic region in the world, the Middle East has been significantly affected by major power politics, the impact of the epidemic, and the slump in oil prices. In 2021, the regional security and economic situation will generally show the following three characteristics: First, the regional security situation has eased to a certain extent, the relationship between regional powers has improved, and the overall intensity of regional hotspot conflicts has decreased; The reality of changes in the pattern and the need to adjust the Middle East policy for the interests of all countries is more clear. Third, affected by the regional anti-epidemic achievements and the rebound in international oil and gas prices, the economy in the Middle East has recovered, but there is an imbalance.
Looking forward to the development of the Middle East in 2022, we feel:
First, the relationship between regional powers will continue to adjust. For example, in April 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed contacts under the mediation of Iraq and have held five rounds of talks so far. However, due to the existence of structural contradictions and the interference of external forces, there should be no fundamental changes in the relations between regional powers in the short term. Although the order in the Middle East may be reshuffled, the overall structure is basically stable. In addition, although the regional conflict hotspots have weakened, the stability is very poor. Around the Kurds in the north, a new large-scale conflict between Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government is likely to break out. The civil war in Yemen is complicated and a negotiable peace framework has not yet been formed. The future direction is not only affected by the forces of various factions in Yemen, but more importantly, it depends on the relationship between the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
Second, in 2022, major powers will continue to conduct diplomacy towards the Middle East in accordance with their own policy priorities and in light of changes in the Middle East situation. Although the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear issue have been accelerated, multi-level meetings of relevant parties have been held frequently, and positive signals have been released, there are still many difficulties to be resolved before a final agreement is reached. However, facing the dual pressure of the US mid-term elections and Iran's tough stance, the Biden administration does not have much room for manoeuvre, and the window for negotiations should come in the first quarter of this year. If the talks fail, the United States may address this pressing issue by sowing regional conflicts. Russia will also continue to maintain a certain amount of military investment to ensure its position and influence in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In addition to actively promoting the Iran nuclear negotiations, the EU will continue to play an active role in Libya and other issues, especially in the Mediterranean region. Since the Middle East is an important strategic response area for China's peaceful development, China will strengthen its involvement under the premise of upholding fairness and justice and non-interference in internal affairs, and by participating in regional hotspot solutions, develop economic and technological innovations including new energy and high technology. Cooperation to expand China's influence in the Middle East.
Finally, with the improvement of technical capabilities and the increasingly standardized prevention and control of the epidemic in 2022, it should achieve more substantial results and promote the continued economic growth of the Middle East. In 2022, most of the countries in the Middle East are likely to reopen, which will further drive the economic development of the region. However, oil and gas prices due to factors such as supply chains are likely to fall back after the global economy gradually recovers and the United States takes the lead in releasing oil reserves to intervene. Countries in the Middle East, especially those in the Gulf region, will still seize the time window for the transformation of global green industries and actively promote the development of non-oil industries, especially the development of green industries, digital industries and high-tech industries.
